What will the world be like in 2050!

Predicting the future, especially 26 years ahead, is inherently uncertain. However, based on current trends and ongoing developments, here are some possible scenarios of what the world might be like in 2050:

Technological advancements:

• Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): AI could significantly impact various sectors, like healthcare, transportation, and manufacturing, potentially automating many tasks and changing the nature of work.
• Advancements in fields like robotics, nanotechnology, and quantum computing: These could lead to breakthroughs in medicine, materials science, and information processing, bringing new solutions to global challenges.
• Increased integration of the digital and physical world: Through technologies like virtual reality and augmented reality, the boundaries between the real and virtual worlds could blur, creating new forms of communication, entertainment, and work.

Geopolitical and economic shifts:

• Shifting global power dynamics: Emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, could continue their growth, potentially altering the global economic and political landscape.
• Increased focus on sustainability and climate change: Addressing climate change and transitioning to renewable energy sources will likely be high on the global agenda, impacting economies, policies, and individual lifestyles.
• Potential for increased social and economic disparity: The uneven distribution of the benefits of technological advancements and globalization could exacerbate existing inequalities within and between countries.

Social and demographic changes:

• An aging global population: With increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates, the world is expected to have a larger elderly population, placing pressure on healthcare systems and social security structures.
• Urbanization: The trend of people moving to cities is expected to continue, posing challenges related to infrastructure, housing, and resource management.
• Growing global interconnectedness: Technological advancements and globalization are likely to continue fostering deeper social and cultural connections across borders.

It's important to remember that these are just potential scenarios, and the actual future will depend on various complex and interconnected factors. Some of the challenges mentioned above, like climate change and inequality, will require collective global action to ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for all.

Reflections on the Pandemic of 2020-21

 

Last week (March 11) the World observed the one year anniversary of this ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. and later this week (15-19 March) most of us will mark another milestone – a year of working from home!

So if you are one of those who like me are observing both or either of these milestones- consider yourself lucky! At last count there are 2.5 million people known to have succumbed to COVID!  And there are countless millions who either did not have the luxury of working from home or worse still no longer have a job! Spare a thought for those people and their families!

As the world reflects on what this pandemic has meant for us as individuals and as humanity here are some personal reflections:

The pandemic has brought to the fore the level of inequality that exists in the world.  Nay, it has actually exacerbated those inequalities whether by wealth (the rich have become richer while the poor have become poorer!) or by gender (woman have been disproportionately impacted). Race has been another factor but it has not been a universal factor across countries.

The end of the pandemic is nowhere in sight- and some scientists say COVID-19 will be with us for a long time –diminishing to the level of the flu that we have all learnt to live with.  One thing is certain –COVID -19 will change our lives forever in some shape or another! We have already witnessed the rise of ‘Vaccine Nationalism’, ‘Vaccine-Elitism’ and the consequential reversal of years of progress towards globalization!

People talk of ‘one day returning to a ‘normal pre-pandemic world’! I wonder if that is a good thing!  In the pre-pandemic world we were racing  towards environmental catastrophe caused by all the climate change actions that mankind was engaging in. It was also a very unequal world between countries, between genders and between races to name only a few!  Is that the kind of ‘pre-pandemic world’ that we wish to return to?  If so it will be a sad day for mankind as it will display that we have let this crisis go to waste and learnt no lessons!

Many years from now as I dangle my grandkids on my knee (or at least have zoom calls with them) and tell them stories of my life, I’ll probably reminisce about our experiences today!  Much like my own grandfather told me stories about World War II. At least, my grandfather could hold his head high and talk about how his generation learnt some lessons and ushered in an era of global growth and increasing prosperity!  I wonder if I will be able to say the same thing. L

These are my thoughts.  What are yours?

Central Banks and Markets - a case of blind leading blind?

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – the home of the Basel accords on banking supervision – have today put out an interesting paper that examines the relationship between monetary policy and market prices through the lens of central bank communication.  In brief:

·         Central bankers use forward guidance to steer market expectations of future monetary policy moves.

·         At the same time, they rely on market prices to gauge the likely path of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

·         This two-way flow between market prices and forward guidance can create a circularity, and raises questions on how best to read market signals without distorting those same prices.

The findings are surprisingly not too different from this old story about native Indians and their supposed ability predict the weather using ancient secrets!

Read on….

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets.

When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.

Also, being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.

A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?"

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's definitely going to be a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting wood like crazy."

===

You can read the full paper here: https://www.bis.org/publ/work692.htm

BlockChain Demystified: The Transformational Technology underlying Bitcoin!

There is a lot of media attention to the ‘bubble’ in cryptocurrencies – mainly Bitcoin- these days. As usual the popular media is sensationalizing the issue and picking up the ‘sexy’ side of the story (about overnight millionaires etc!).

As a financial regulator in Canada, I have been following this whole story for some time now. On a personal level my son and I also mined some cryptocurrency (Ether or ETH) for a while.

It pains me when I read all the media hype that the media is not covering the transformational – and I mean truly transformational – technology that underlies Bitcoin and the like. This is the BlockChain technology. I therefore thought of wiring up a blog post and also sharing the same with my groups on WA.

While I was writing up an introduction to the Blockchain technology, I came across a link to an excellent article.  I cannot express it better and don’t want to provide second hand information. So go to this link and read the article:

https://www.cryptosource.ca/single-post/2017/10/11/Introduction-to-Blockchain

For those who prefer audio-visual education, here are links to a couple of great videos explaining the same thing:

1. Blockchain Expert Explains One Concept in 5 Levels of Difficulty : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYip_Vuv8J0

2.    Ever wonder how Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) actually work? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4&t=230s

 

As I said earlier, Blockchain, is ground breaking technology. It is already transforming traditional processes like inter-bank funds transfers and securities transactions. Major banks worldwide are investing resources into this technology. Now some companies are experimenting with Smart Contracts using Blockchain technology.

 

Bitcoin or other Cryptocurrencies –there are over a 100 of them- are only the glamorous / sexy/ controversial by products of this technology.

 

Hope this helps.

India Demonetizes Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 Currency Notes- My Take

My take on the demonetization story: 

If there is one lesson from Trump's upset (?) victory last week, it is that the media and thinking (?) liberals who sit in their ivory towers and comment on social media about what should and should not be considered good or bad, appeared to the silent majority to be talking down to them. To a slightly lesser degree this is also true of the Brexit vote. 

The silent majority are the ones who are directly affected. Imagine this analogy from a car. The silent majority are the rubber particles on the tire which grind against the road, they are the particles in the  mechanical parts of the engine that do all the grinding and feel the heat. Imagine the particles of the steering wheel ( which is sitting in the cool comfort of an air conditioned cabin) talking among themselves and say in social media about how fantastic modern tech is, how much society has progressed and occassionally paying lip service to the hard working particles out there! And all the while, the particles on the steering wheel are suffering from delusions of grandeur that they are the ones because of whom the car is going where it was supposed to go!  

Once you give every particle one vote and there comes around someone telling them that they are getting ripped out by the 'ruling elite' or the 'liberal media' , even if that someone is a real estate salesman who will lie through his teeth to get a sale, the message strikes home. And come election time these downtrodden particles will vote for their smooth talking perceived champion as among other things it signifies poking a finger in the eye of the high and mighty talking down to them. This is what most pollsters missed. While the liberal media, the ruling elite (including Mr and Mrs Obama) and twitterati were busy labeling Trump a bigot, racist, xenophobic person who is 'unfit' to be President, all the silent majority were thinking was "look who is talking! The very same guys who Mr Trump has opened our eyes to! and they are telling us how we should think when we have lost our jobs, we are hurting due to high Obamacare premiums or getting shot on the streets!!! ".

I am seeing a parallel, in the situation vis-a-vis the Rs 1000 and Rs 500 demonetization.  Shr Modi - whatever his 'ulterior' motives - was hard pressed to come up with something resembling a 'war' on black money.  I don't think he called it a 'surgical strike'. The media gave it that label. For him this was just another move in the fight to make India a better place to be. No one disagrees that corruption and its grease black money are like a cancer that is eating at India's vitals. And if it needed some chemo therapy he was prepared to take it on and administer that dreaded treatment. As we all know unfortunately chemo therapy does not discriminate and kills some good cells with the bad cells. In all my readings and private chats with friends in India, I have gathered that the man on the street has generally bought and believed Shri Modi's good intentions. Even the rural villagers who are sick and tired of being exploited by the local ruling elite are probably thinking that they will accept a little personal pain if only it helps to ruin the local village kingpin!  People are comparing the bankers who are braving the brunt of this to our army men and singing praises for their efforts!  

And what do the liberal media, the opposition, some parts of the twitterati, even some IIM profs  do? They are busy  questioning the motives or saying that this is not a 'surgical strike' or that it is hurting the poor man on the street. They are even showing pictures of long queues in some places. But friends and relatives who have had personal experience tell me that the exchange of notes at their bank was a pretty smooth affair. he government has made it amply clear that other than the inconvenience of exchanging the demonetized notes, the law abiding common man need not worry. Sure there will be collateral damage. All policy will be paralyzed if avoidance of collateral damage is one of the conditions to be met. What can be aimed for and achieved is minimizing collateral damage. And I believe the various mitigating steps that have been announced were aimed at just that objective.

I don't know what other steps the Government plans. I don't know how successful this will be. Corruption is a hydra-headed monster. Who knows what kind of backlash this will create.  Time only will tell. But for now I am giving Shri Modi an A-plus for effort and trying-- something that I cannot imagine any other political leader even dreaming about. So let us do away with the negativity and put our faith in India's leader! If he succeeds, India succeeds!

A research paper from years ago

Sharing a research paper "RAROC-A Performance Measurement Tool". I wrote it in 2001 with a colleague from my team, when we worked together in ICICI Bank.

The paper is of great interest to anyone dealing with  Risk Based Performance Management for Banks and has been well referenced in many more publications.

The paper was originally published in http://www.iciciresearchcentre.org, but that site is now no longer valid and to ensure that this publication lives on, I am posting a link to it here in this blog.

Ethics and the Medical Profession in the Indian Context

The following is a response that I wrote on my high school Whatsapp group in response to some heated debate about the Medical Profession and stories about their sub-standard ethics.  Blogging it for others.

All professions providing some form of service have a lot of regulations around ‘ethicality’ and ‘morality’. This applies to financial professionals – people who give investment advice to their clients as well as the medical profession. I have worked in the finance profession all my life and have now moved into a regulator role. And I am applying some of the principles that we adopt for the financial advisory profession in this discussion.

No one will grudge a super-specialty doctor charging high fees because he has spent years and money in acquiring his skill and he does deliver results! They have spent lakhs and crores on that costly private medical education or on equipment and therefore they must now recover their cost. It is called ‘Return on Investment’. Yes I get that! But this argument immediately throws the ‘Hippocratic Oath’ out of the window and brings the doctor down from the heights of being in a ‘noble profession’ to being just another businessman.

One of the tests of ethicality is ‘Conflict of Interest’.  In any doctor-patient relationship, whose side is the doctor on? Is the doctor looking out for the best interest of the patient or is he/she acting in self-interest?  This I where all the talk of the ‘cut’ business comes into play. If as a financial advisor, I get a cut for every mutual fund I recommend and get the customer to invest in, then there are no marks for guessing that my interest would be to recommend the mutual fund which gives me the highest commission rather than the one that is best for the customer.  I have immediately compromised the financial health of the customer. Translate this to the medical profession and you have a large number of stories of over-prescribing, over-testing, and even advising surgery when not warranted. There is both anecdotal evidence of this as well as established case law.  Just do a google search.

How often do doctors sit with a patient and their relatives and go through the case, discuss the pros and cons of various optional routes of treatment and explain the doctor’s reasoning for the line of treatment that is being recommended? If the medical profession is prepared to be called just another business then business ethics demands that they be transparent.  

In my google search I came across a book authored by Pune-based Dr Abhay Shukla and Dr Arun Gadre. It is an English translation of the Marathi one — Kaifiyat pramanik doctoranchi (reflections by sincere doctors). It contains interviews of 78 practicing doctors from Mumbai, Pune, Delhi, Kolkata, Bangalore and Chennai. “These whistleblower doctors have mustered the ethical courage to expose facts for the first time on such a scale,” Dr Arun Gadre says. Several doctors spoke up including Dr Vijay Ajgaonkar, senior diabetologist from Mumbai, who says, “Now our greed has increased to the extent that when a patient of one consultant goes to another consultant, the second one prescribes the same medicine, but merely changes the brand to show that he is doing something different. And it is true that this profession has now become completely commercial.” The book describes every unethical practice from the horse’s mouth: cuts or referral fees for diagnostics as well as medical procedures; ‘Study tours’, also known as foreign trips funded by big labs and pharma companies for doctors; hospitals employing people who will rush to an accident scene and act as social workers to get the injured to the hospital that employs them. Etc. Etc.

There is one bold argument that is commonly made- that C is for choice. Whenever I hear this I am reminded of the time when my late father died way back in 1994. My brothers and I were doing the rituals of the kriya karma and were in a grieving state . The ‘priest’ (who smelled money as my brother was working in the UK and I came from Japan) would recommend to us one ritual after another emphasizing how not doing it would bring some pain or harm to our dad’s soul. He would always end his dire warnings with the words “it is your choice” Similarly, when relatives are worried about the health of their loved one, the doctor is in a position of trust. And at that time if he/she is going to be conflicted and concerned about making a commission then how different is he/she from this unethical priest?  

Long story short, the medical profession surely needs some soul searching as to where it all went south.

And finally there are some good apples and some bad apples in every basket.  The problem is that the bad apples give the whole basket a bad name.

On Acquiring Canadian Citizenship

Today (11^th Sept-2015) marks the final step in a 10-year journey for my family, as we complete our quest for acquiring Canadian Citizenship- a process we started in Sep-2005

I write this with mixed feelings. When I woke up today I was an Indian citizen and by the time the sun sets today I will have become a Canadian Citizen having taken the oath of citizenship at a Citizenship ceremony in the Art Gallery of Alberta, Edmonton after which I will receive the certificate of citizenship

The citizenship ceremony involves affirming to be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second, Queen of Canada (the symbol of the government in Canada) and to faithfully observe the laws of Canada and fulfil my duties as a Canadian Citizen. (Note: The Queen personifies the state and is the personal symbol of allegiance, unity and authority for all Canadians). My wife, Anita and Rohan will be by my side as we together embrace a new identity as citizens of the first world. (Note:  My daughter, Ankita acquired Canadian Citizenship earlier this year).

Today will also commence a process of renouncing Indian Citizenship, surrendering our passport and (optionally) acquiring Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) status and documentation. India does not recognize dual citizenship, hence they have devised this OCI status which equates us with NRIs in terms of financial transactions, property ownership and visa-free entry into India.

From a legal standpoint, this milestone for us means that henceforth we will travel on a Canadian passport and be eligible to vote in Canadian elections while losing the right to vote in Indian elections. The Canadian passport is decidedly more respected and accepted as it enables visa-free or visa-on-arrival entry to over 177 countries. Other than that very little changes. Canada encourages landed immigrants to bring with them their cultural heritage and value systems from their land of birth and upbringing. Canadians are rightfully proud of the multiculturalism that is visible everywhere you look. So we will continue to be Indian at heart while also being Canadian in our outlook and worldview.

As the saying goes, you can take a person out of India but you cannot take India out of a person!

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone!

There is a biblical story that goes like this.  When an adulteress was brought to the village square and was about to be meted out the traditional punishment of death by stoning, all the villagers gathered and took up a stone each. When the family of the woman appealed to Jesus who was in the village, he apparently said words to the effect that: “This woman must be punished. But Let he who is without sin cast the first stone”.

I am reminded of this story when I read all the posts in various whatsapp groups about recent cases wherein famous Politicians and Actors in India are able to hire top-notch lawyers or pay their way out of tough criminal cases and avoid going to jail. The common refrain is that the law should be applicable to everyone and just because someone has money-power he/she should not be spared. I wonder how many of us have always strictly adhered to various laws?

We need to do some soul searching and ask ourselves how many times we have paid a bribe – to the traffic cop after jumping a red light; to the TTE for a berth when there were others ahead of us in the waitlist; to the government clerk or ‘karmchaari’ for speeding up our case; to the IT officer to be lenient etc. etc.

My point is about the principle not the magnitude of the crime or the amount of the bribe.  If we value our work to be done and don’t mind paying a 1000 Rupees to escape the law we too will probably pay up.  If our child was involved – even unwittingly- in a crime, would we actually tell the cops, “he is a criminal, take him and punish him/her to the full extent of the law”? No. My bet is that our first thought will be to spend whatever it takes to ensure our child goes scot free.   We will probably consider a few thousand bucks well spent if our kid can avoid a night in jail.  In Sallu’s case a few lakhs/crores is the same as a few thousand bucks is to us. The amount is relative. What is not relative and common is that we all are willing to pay something and escape facing the law.

I am sharing this thought for us to reflect and self-introspect.

Canada's Health Care System: A personal story

Feeling confident (though still slightly apprehensive) before surgery for a total thyroidectomy on Monday Jan 26. This post is not about the 'why' and 'what for?' about my surgery. This is aimed at being a feel good story about the care and human elements in the health care delivery process in Canada!

Two months ago when the biopsy results came in, the surgeon’s office called me. The surgeon spent a good 30-minutes explaining to me the results, what they meant, the likely paths (with probabilities) that the cysts on my thyroid might take and my treatment options. This was indeed an illustrative talk with him drawing out the diagrams on his iPad! Given the odds and the prognosis I took his advice to go for a total thyroidectomy in one go, and was lucky to get a date within two months. (Alberta’s, like most of Canada, public health system is totally free for residents but is notorious for longish wait times for elective non-life threatening conditions!). 

A week before the surgery, I was pleasantly surprised to receive a call from the hospital (https://www.covenanthealth.ca/…/misericordia-community-hosp…) inviting me to attend a pre-surgical assessment clinic. During the more than 2 hour session I was seen by three different nurses and an anaesthetist, to assess my readiness, offer counselling and answer any questions that I may have. I was ushered into a regular examination room offered a seat at the table and a glass of water/coffee etc. After the routine physical check-up the 2nd nurse took an ECG and then the third nurse walked me through the entire process right from preparation at home and diet restrictions from the night before surgery, through to what the admission process will look like, time expected in the operating room followed by time in the recovery room, before I would be taken back to my room for an overnight stay. She concluded with the discharge and post-operative care that will normally be required. She told me that precise instructions for my condition would be given at time of discharge. This was not just her talking and my taking notes furiously. She told me to put away my note-pad and instead wrote the pertinent details in a pre-printed prepared booklet for me to carry back and not worry about missing some detail. By the end of her talk, my expectations were set and most of my routine questions – e.g.: what to wear, what to (and not to) eat and what to do with my glasses etc., were taken care of. Despite all the details that she provided, she assured me that on the day of surgery, the surgeon himself will be ready and willing to answer any further questions that I may have. The one thing that stuck with me long after the meeting was her mentioning not to get worried when I hear the surgical team talking at the time of surgery and asking me or each other what might look like routine questions. She assured me that this was because they are required to follow the WHO recommended ‘Safe Surgery Check List’ to ensure the best and safest possible outcome from the surgery. Part of this is to encourage me – and members of my family - to ask as many questions as I have and to keep talking to the surgical team. The time in the operating room is estimated at 1-hr & 40 minutes.

I was next seen by the Anaesthetist who put me completely at ease explaining how the General Anaesthesia will be administered, how the attending anaesthetist will be constantly monitoring me and how they will slowly revive me from deep slumber and ensure my condition is stable before moving me to the recovery room where another set of nurses will take over. She told me that I will probably need to be in the recovery room for an estimated 1-hour after which I will be moved to my room where I will be under observation overnight before being discharged the next day. The pre-assessment clinic then ended with a visit to the pathology lab within the hospital itself for getting a detailed blood analysis report. (More paper for my already thick binder!).
Sharing the story in some detail, as it made me realize the true meaning of what being a resident of a first world country meant. The medical profession at all levels is totally committed not just to treating me (admit – do procedure- discharge) but treating me like a human being all through the process, recognizing that (my family and) I would have emotional worries and taking the pains to address our concerns. And all this for an ordinary person. I am no VIP!

I recognize that while free at a transactional level, this is truly my tax dollars at work. But I would gladly pay any amount of tax so long as I have the assurance that those tax dollars will work for me, if and when I, or my family, need it. 

Blessed to be living (and paying taxes) in Canada!

Why do family and friends interfere in our marriages in India

The question of why friends and family interfere so much in our marriages, in the Indian context, has been vexing me for some time.  

And I believe, I've finally cracked it!

The answer is simple.  It is because we invite them into our marriages. Let me explain.

Take a random Indian wedding invitation. Yes I am talking about both the printed variety as well as the ones that are nowadays ubiquitous on social media (mainly Facebook & Twitter).  Up front and centre the invitation reads:

“Smt. and Shri (or the more modern Mrs. and Mr) So and So, Cordially invite you with family and friends…… “

- Ahaa!  The first mistake!  You might as well invite the whole town. We are all one big family and where the bloodline breaks, we have so many friends! Of the social media (Facebook) variety!

But the problem does not stop there! The next words are in my opinion the root cause of the whole problem.  Continuing with our example:

 “Smt. and Shri (or the more modern Mrs. and Mr) So and So, Cordially invite you with family and friends to the marriage of their daughter (or son)  XYZ  with ABC  etc etc…… “ .

Note that I have highlighted the word ‘marriage’. Now that means the whole period from the time the young couple tie the knot till ‘Death doth do them apart’!  That’s what is commonly meant by the term marriage. e.g., “my marriage is successful”, “She is in her third marriage”, or that famous line from Princess Diana, “I often felt there were three of us in this marriage”.  So if you invite someone (and worse still with their family and friends) to the “marriage”, you have invited them for a long, long time.

Now I don’t believe in just diagnosing the problem and not giving a remedy. The first simple remedy is to put the names of the persons you are inviting on the top of the invite and cut out the ‘with family and friends’ part.

But this is not so effective until you follow the second corrective step. Replace the word ‘marriage’ with  ‘wedding’ or ‘wedding ceremony’. This way you are sure that you are inviting certain specified individuals (& not their whole brood consisting of extended family & friends) to a certain specified ceremony/function called– yes you guessed it – the ‘wedding’. This is the brief 2-3 hours that it takes for the bride and the groom to exchange vows, accept the gifts from invitees and for all to enjoy the good food, music and dance and then depart.

So if you want peace and quiet from interfering friends and relatives in any marriage, amend your invitation to read:  

“Smt. and Shri (or the more modern Mrs. and Mr) So and So, cordially invite you to the wedding ceremony of their daughter (or son)  XYZ  with ABC  etc etc…… “.

Problem solved!

Now, Earn that Bharat Ratna, Sachin!

Dear Sachin,

There has been considerable hoopla about your retirement from test cricket. Your fans and the media have been involved in a keen tussle to out-awe each other with their praises for you, their wailing about what will happen to Indian Cricket and all the talk about this being the end of an era!

I do not share any of their angst – after all an era is longer than 24 years! Nor do I share Shashi Tharoor’s worries about how India will cope without you wielding the willow in Test Cricket. I think India has bigger problems than your retirement.  There’s the poverty, the hunger, the illiteracy not to speak of the communal hatred being spread by self seeking politicians. But that should not bother you!

What should bother you is: “What now?”If I were you, I would sit down in front of a mirror and look myself in the eye and ask myself, what it means to be the nation’s 43^rd Bharat Ratna. Who are the other 42? What is/was their claim to fame?  For the most part they were either Freedom activists or self- seeking politicians (people who you co-awardee Dr Rao referred to as ‘idiots’)! There are of course some who excelled in the fields of Music/ Entertainment, the Sciences, Educationists, and even a couple of non-citizens (Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and Nelson Mandela).  I would then wonder, what it is that made the powers that be think that I deserved this award. Is it just a political stunt on the part of the ruling party to cash in on my popularity and keep my myriad fans happy just when the elections are around the corner? Or is there finally recognition of the image building value that 'Brand Sachin Tendulkar' brings to India? Whatever, the reasoning, I would probably conclude that it is what it is; I might as well bask in the glory. This could probably explain your magnanimous gesture in dedicating your award to all mothers in India. What does this ‘dedicating’ mean?  Will it mean that you will take up the causes of mothers, instead of the inane ad promotions for various material goods that you get paid so fabulously for?  Or maybe you will use some of the wealth that fame has bestowed you with, to set up hospitals in remote locations with only one mission:  “No more mothers dying during child-birth!” Or maybe it is just a cliché and I am digressing in delusion!

Anyway, back to the “What now?” question. How can you silence all those critics who think that awarding you the Bharat Ratna was misplaced?  Here are just a couple of humble suggestions to actually ‘earn’ that Bharat Ratna: 

1. You could set up a 'Sachin Tendulkar Foundation' that will spot talent and train deserving children in every Olympic sport, setting your administrators and coaches the goal of 20 Gold Medals in the 2020 (Tokyo). That is 7-years from now! And Tokyo has just started building the facilities. So if they can plan and deliver the Olympics in 7-years, I guess  you can plan and get to the target of producing seven Gold medal winning athletes. Money should not be a problem for you. And judging by the harsh life that most children in rural India live neither should physical grit, endurance and will-power.  What is needed is good coaching, motivation, proper equipment and the right nutrition! This way you can be the catalyst for spawning many more Bharat Ratnas from the field of sports!  When you are 70, would you prefer to be known for all your cricketing records (some of which might be bettered by then) or would you want to be known for your service to Indian sport in all its shapes and forms. 
2. You could use Brand Sachin for promoting India as a tourism destination.  God knows we have more natural beauty that any other place in the world. And we need that foreign exchange to save the Rupee.

 So go for it Sachin.  You described your cricketing life as between 24 years and 22 yards.  But come on, Sachin! Life is more than years and yards.  It is also about how many lives one has tangibly touched and improved.

Eagerly looking forward to your second innings,

Sincerely,

Jammi

Seven reasons to love living in Canada,

Seven reasons to love living in Canada, based on a just released OECD report:

·         Income: The average household earns US$28,194 each year after taxes. That’s more than US$5,000 above the OECD average. There is disparity at both ends of the earnings spectrum though, not surprisingly. The top 20% takes home US$55,718, while the bottom 20% earns US$10,526. We ranked seventh on household wealth and ninth on income.

·         Community: Canadians spend two minutes a day volunteering; that’s about half the OECD average. On the other hand, 64% said they’d helped a stranger in the last month. (The OECD average is 48%.) And 94% know someone they could count on if needed. We ranked seventh on support network.

·         Housing: Nine in 10 Canadians are satisfied with their housing. The average home in this country provides 2.6 rooms per occupant, more than any other country. And 99.8% of Canadians live in a home with a private washroom that has an indoor, flushing toilet. (The OECD average is 97.8%.) We ranked 24^th on the ratio of housing costs to income, eighth on basic facilities and first on number of rooms per person.

·         Environment: We’re better than average on both air pollution and water quality measures. We ranked 14^th on pollution and 12^th on water quality.

·         Health: Our life expectancy at birth is 81, a full year above the OECD average. And 88% of Canadians say they are in good health. Health spending in this country makes up 11.4% of gross domestic product. (The OECD average is 9.5% of gross domestic product.) We ranked third in health and 17^th in life expectancy.

·         Safety: Just 1.3% of Canadians said they were assaulted over the one-year period leading up to the survey. That’s well below the OECD average of 4%. Our homicide rate is less impressive. It’s 1.6%, only marginally below the average rate of 2.2%. We ranked first on assault rate and 23^rd on homicide rate.

·         Work-life balance: Canadians work an average 1,702 hours per year. That’s 74 hours below the OECD average. When asked if they work more than 50 hours a week, 4% said yes. (The OECD average is 9%.) We ranked ninth on working long hours.

The US FED just gave the junkies more Opium!

Imagine your son or favorite nephew (or any one you love a lot and are in charge of caring for) is hooked on drugs! Doctors have told you that if he continues with this habit, his end is near. There are two ways to cure him of his addiction. One is by taking away his stash of drugs -which will in the short run aggravate his condition and make him more violent and increase your task of caring for him. You may have to probably give up your day job to care for him. A painful process for both. The other way is to say, ”YOLO -You only live once!” and let him continue on his drug habit- in fact supplying him more, to ensure that he is apparently happy, while you can go about your daily business! What would you do?

Now, replace the addict with the “Markets” and yourself with the “US Federal Reserve”. Yesterday the FED decided to keep the taps flowing. What’s flowing out of the tap was once antibiotics for the market (QE). It has now become pure opium! And the markets are cheering that the taps will continue to flow! Come on you faceless Market! The US Fed just said that they are not sure of growth prospects for the world’s largest economy. In fact they trimmed the growth forecast. So what the hell are you cheering about?   

Another Gang Rape!

One more gang-rape – this time in Mumbai! It once again brought back memories of the horrific Delhi incident of December last year! The whole country – physically and in the social media- is going atwitter with laments of the state of affairs and calls for stricter punishment, some going to extremes to say we should introduce ‘Shariaa’ laws in India! But, stepping back from the immediacy of this case, it seems strange to me that all this outpouring of disgust and revulsion seems to be reserved for cases emanating from India’s Metros, where the victim is an educated and or upwardly mobile, hard working young woman. While deplorable, these are only two cases out of hundreds in the past 8-months. There have been umpteen cases, before and after the Delhi case. And these are happening all over the country. The people who are taking to the streets and the social media clearly identify with these victims as one of their own. And it is admirable that the spotlight that is cast on these cases, is causing the law enforcement agencies to up their act and be seen to be taking action. But what about those hundreds of rapes and gang-rapes – some where the victims are as young as 4-yrs old? Who is shedding a tear for them or pushing the administration to bring the culprits to justice?

That apart, are stricter laws (death penalty or ‘castration’ as the reference to Shariaa law seems to suggest) the solution? What about the efficacy with which the law enforcement machinery is able to bring a case to court, try the accused and prove them guilty beyond reasonable doubt and mete out the appropriate punishment? What eventually is a good deterrent? A strict law or stricter enforcement? We have the death penalty for murder –in extreme, ‘rarest of the rare’ cases! But has that meant that we have no murders? What is the conviction rate? What is the speed with which successful convictions happen? It’s been 8-months since the Delhi gang-rape. And the case is being tried in a ‘Fast Track court’. Under what definition is ‘8-months and counting’ Fast? Why is about 40% of the police force engaged in protecting VIPs? What if India were to have a full blown economic crisis like the one in Punjab, where the State Government is apparently unable to pay salaries of policemen among other government employees? These are disturbing questions for which I don’t have the answers.

I noticed that some of the comments on Facebook and other social media ask the question: “What makes men turn into such devils?” or “our culture is all about respect for women- they are symbolized by our mother or sisters Why then do some men treat women with such contempt and violate their inner persona”. These are definitely good questions for psychologists to attempt to answer. But I have a theory and it has to do with the way societal morals have changed over time. Our cinema, like all of show biz, now promotes promiscuity like never before! Senseless Item numbers like ‘Sheela Ki Jawaani” and “Munni Badnaam Hui” only glamorize the vamp. Most of us watch such movies for three hours, get back to our lives and think nothing more about it. But there must be a lumpen element out there who possibly are not able to distinguish between the make-believe world of cinema and the real world. These are the people who actually believe that Shah Rukh Khan / Rajnikant can single-handedly smash 20 sword wielding guys to pulp! For these people such item numbers only help to reinforce years of cultural power stereo type of male supremacy and convey the message:  “It is okay to look upon women as objects!”  From there it is a downhill slope – beginning with staring at women, passing lewd comments, grabbing various parts of the anatomy of women in crowded places and in some cases, rape.  I am not saying that cinema is the main factor in the ‘objectification’ of women. I use it as an example for one of the players along with other elements like the fashion world, the ad-world ( the way products for ‘fair skin’ are pushed) and also factors like illiteracy and unemployment.

Any comments are welcome.

Tussle between India's Politicos and Administrators!

My thoughts  on the spate of news items on politicians targeting ('punishing') IAS officers-junior as in UP (Ms Durga) as well as senior ones (Ms Sonali Kumar) as in J&K :

1. It is nothing new. Politicians have always wanted the babus to kow-tow to them;
Some have been nice and sweet about this expectation and mesmerized the bureaucrats into licking their boots (like JN) and some have done this in a crass manner (Laalu reportedly, in his hey days used to refer to the state Police head as "Darogaaji" and his chief secretary as "Badaa Babu"). Akhilesh in his brash young style is only the latest to join this club of arrogant politicians. Keeping the IAS officers on a leash without them realizing it or even penalizing them for angering the master, is an art. By the sheer fact that it has been in power for so long, the Congress has perfected this into a fine art. (which is why little is heard about the way the IAS officer one Mr Khemka, who took on 'Raabert' and his land deals!), The others are still learning this art and Ms Durga is only one of the victims of that learning process.

2. Apart from a handful of honest officers - and I don't know all the facts or other incidents in her life to say with 100% certainty that Ms Durga is one of this rare breed --the majority of civil servants are happy to be cozy with the politicos and live in an exclusive "Club of Mutual Back Scratchers!" ( This term CMBS :Copyright JRR-2013).

3. Taking a 20,000 foot view of the whole system, I look upon this as just one part of the food chain making a huge song and dance about what is essentially an aberratiion. The Civil Servants themselves are known to lord it over their lesser cousins and definitely ride rough over the masses of people in their care. I have been BM of an SBI Branch in a District HQ town (20 yrs ago) and know first-hand how exclusive these guys are. They pull no punches in pulling up people lower down the food chain for say not meeting soft loan targets. When professional bankers have found certain loans non-viable and refuse to make the loans in order to protect their depositors' interests, these ladies and gentlemen - probably misguided by fear or greed about their next promotion - arm twisted the bankers into making the loans as if it was their 'baap ka paisa'! As a common man, even getting into the SDM or DMs office is an achievement- leave alone getting one's grievance heard or attended to.

4. The media is as usual having a ball in the whole drama. When has the media run a sustained campaign backing the rare honest IAS officer? They cover whatever is topical and trending and as soon as the next not potato comes along they abandon any issue.

Disclaimer:  This is only a frustrated view of the dismal state of affairs! In no way am I suggesting that what happened to Ms Durga is right. I am only saying that it is part of a larger malaise in the system.  There are two reasons I did not join the IAS. Firstly I did not want to kow-tow to a 4th class pass minister. Secondly, I did not make the grade in the second stage of the Main Exam. Thank God for that! 

Model RIsk- Humor

In the financial world, Model Risk is a type of risk that occurs when a financial model used for any financial decision, does not perform as designed due to various reasons, the major one being the reality being a far cry from the underlying assumptions of the model. Model risk is a subset of operational risk, as it is usually a failure of either the systems or the people running the systems, might not completely understand its assumptions and limitations.

Increasing models are now being used in a wide variety of fields, other than finance.

The following anecdote is a classic case of Model Risk. In plain layman terms it exemplifies Blind leading Blind!

It was autumn, and the American Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a new Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared. But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, 
"Is the coming winter going to be cold?" 
"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded. 
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the National Weather Service again. 
"Is it going to be a very cold winter?" 
"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter." 
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find. Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. 
"Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?" 
"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever." 
"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked. 
The weatherman replied, "Well our weather prediction model considers a lot of factors, but over the years, due to back-testing and fine tuning we have given a 75% weight to the actions of the Indians, who know better than us. And this year although the other weather indicators are pointing to a very mild winter, the Indians are collecting wood like crazy!"

How close are we to replacing God?

My 20-something daughter woke up this morning with a severe headache, decidedly a bad way to start one’s weekend. She told me this as she joined me in the kitchen for our morning coffee.

But she did not just say, “Dad, I am having a severe headache”. No, that would be a very simple way of conveying information. What she said was: “Dad why did I have to get the ‘migraine’ gene from you?” Pretty dramatic eh! It sure got my attention and sympathy if that is what she was looking out for.

The initial repartee that came to my mind was, “Well you were conceived in the bedroom and not in a Petri-dish in some laboratory”. But I am a prude who was born in the 1960’s and brought up in conservative India.  We don’t talk about the science behind procreation with our children, even grown up ones. Left to ourselves we would like to let them believe that children just happened once a man and woman got married. So I held my tongue and responded with something like, “you get your genes as a package deal and cannot pick and choose”.

But later I was thinking about my initial repartee. Would it be possible to genetically engineer (the petri-dish way) a child today? What is the present state of scientific research on this? Are we anywhere close to allowing man to play God to be able to pick and choose the genetic traits of our offspring? And even if scientifically feasible, what are the practical and ethical challenges that lie ahead of us?

Having nothing better to do on a Saturday morning, I decided to devote about 30 minutes to surfing the web to see what I could find. This blog is a summary of my 30-minute Saturday morning surfing. It is not the last word on this topic nor do I claim that Google search came-up the most insightful articles.  But for whatever it is worth here is what I found from the first page of results:

The first link that I hit on took me to www.naturalnews.com and their series on the top ten technologies. They put Genetic Engineering at #7 and the author of this piece, Mike Adams discusses the moral and ethical issues of genetic engineering and concludes that:

“We currently have neither the understanding of how DNA actually controls human behavior, nor the technology to selectively replace undesirable behaviors with ones we would prefer. There is no "violence" gene, for example, that could be reconfigured into a "peace" gene.

So we are nowhere close to being able to accomplish meaningful genetic engineering of humans even if we wanted, and that's a blessing, since we aren't mature enough as a civilization to deal with its implications”.

When I hit the second link on the Google search results page, I landed on a blog posting by Rebecca Sato on http://www.dailygalaxy.com. This is a 2009 article and in sharp contrast to the earlier article, Rebecca Sato maintains that:

“Nearly every day we are inundated with new genetic discoveries. Scientists can now pinpoint many specific genes including being lean, living a long life, improved self-healing, thrill seeking behavior, and having an improved memory among many other incredible traits. Many believe that these genes can be manipulated in ordinary humans, in effect creating Super-Mutants”

She goes on a flight of fantasy thinking about the limitless possibilities that genetic engineering throws up, but concludes that “Ethics, not scientific limitations, is the real brick wall”. An interesting article indeed!
I will conclude this blog post with the reference to the third link that I hit on. This seemed a more holistic and balanced article which acknowledged both the technological as well as ethical barriers to Human Genetic Engineering (HGE). In this essay, David King takes the reader through a fascinating journey touching on the various aspects of this hot topic of the day. He discusses the distinction between current knowledge (Currently, genetic engineering is only applied to non-reproductive cells -known as 'gene therapy'. in order to treat diseases in a single patient, rather than in all their descendants) and wholesale genetic engineering of the type that my daughter would have wished for (eliminate the ‘migraine gene’). He then goes on to discuss in some detail the various arguments for and against HGE, concluding with a discussion on the possible consequences if HGE became as ubiquitous as Facebook!

Happy Reading!